Mumbai/New Delhi: Indian
companies are posting their best earnings results since Prime Minister
Narendra Modi swept to power two years ago, giving the clearest sign yet
that India's fast, but patchy, economic growth is becoming more
broad-based.
Though headline growth figures make India one of the world's fastest
growing economies, weak private investment and low capacity utilization
rates have painted a less rosy picture.
Going by India Inc's surge in profit growth in the first three months
of the year, however, the outlook really does seem to be brightening,
as benefits feed through from lower interest rates and government
spending in infrastructure and defense.
On Tuesday, India will release gross domestic product data for the
January-March quarter. Year-on-year growth of 7.5 percent is forecast by
a Reuters survey economists, slightly faster than the previous
quarter's 7.3 percent.
"Macro indicators are suggesting that at the ground level the economy
is gaining momentum," said Dhiraj Sachdev, a fund manager at HSBC Asset
Management in Mumbai.
"That has also been validated in terms of better corporate earnings
in many of the sectors."Operating profits for 289 companies that have
reported results so far leapt 25.5 percent year-on-year in the March
quarter, compared with 1.7 percent growth in the previous quarter,
according to Thomson Reuters data.
It is Indian firms' best showing since the April-June quarter in
2014. Put alongside the 6.8 percent decline in earnings that data
provider Factset reckons companies in the S&P 500 suffered during
the same quarter, India's corporates have some things going in their
favor.
India's broader National Stock Exchange share index .NSEI has surged
around 17 percent from a near 2-year low on Feb. 29, outperforming a 7
percent gain by the Asia-Pacific MSCI index excluding Japan
.MIAPJ0000PUS.
This week, Morgan Stanley upgraded Indian equities to "overweight"
from "equalweight" citing rising dividends, and prospects of a simpler
country-wide sales tax, lower interest rates and benign monsoon among
its reasons.
Bumpy ride
Sadly, corporate balance sheets remain stretched, making it hard to
revive private investment, which has lagged for the past four years.
Yet, sectors tied to capital goods and infrastructure such as steel
and cement are recovering. After five quarters of double-digit declines,
operating profit in the materials sector rose 22 percent in the March
quarter.
Following droughts in the past two years, monsoon rains, due in
coming weeks, are forecast to be better than average, which should
underpin demand, particularly from the rural sector.
And while factories are running nearly 30 percent below capacity, sales are increasing.
Consumption of long steel products, used mainly in construction, has
averaged 10 percent annual growth on a rolling three-month basis over
the past six months. The cement and power sectors have also seen demand
improve.
Commercial vehicle sales are growing at a double-digit pace on the back of a strong replacement demand, industry data shows.
Projects worth nearly $31 billion were completed in the March
quarter, according to think-tank CMIE, up from $13 billion in the
previous quarter. New investments in the same period more than
doubled.There are still plenty of less encouraging indicators.
A weak global economy hardly bodes well for exports, which have
fallen for the last 17 months. Businesses are also finding it hard to
borrow as a spike in stressed loans has made banks wary, and Thomson
Reuters data shows Indian firms are taking longer than usual to pay or
get paid.
"The economy is undergoing a slow and bumpy recovery after three
years of tepid growth," said Shilan Shah, an economist with Capital
Economics. "But we have seen false dawns before."